A New Presidential Campaign Poll

The presidential campaigns and First Look are both in full swing. In this article, we combine the both of them to predict who will win the presidential election in November.

A New Presidential Campaign Poll

It’s official. John Kerry has accepted the Democratic Presidential nomination. To get you ready for the final stretch of the 2004 Presidential Race, we’ve created a new way to predict who will become President in November. Using preliminary 2nd quarter data we’ve gathered from First Look participants as our polling data, our method looks at how credit unions in the home states of both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates performed against each other.

Candidates Member Growth Share Growth Loan Growth ROA Net Worth/
Ave Assets
Efficiency Score
Bush (TX) & Cheney (WY) 4.20% 3.84% 13.11% 0.97% 0.85% 69.37% 3
Kerry (MA) & Edwards (NC) 8.37% 11.54% 21.80% 0.72% 0.45% 70.08% 3

The Bush-Cheney campaign was able to capitalize on credit unions from Texas and Wyoming that participate in First Look and are effective at minimizing expenses and generating revenue. However, the Kerry-Edwards campaign was able to utilize large credit unions such as Jeanne D’Arc and State Employees of North Carolina that participate in First Look and use economies of scale to increase loans, shares and members.

As a result, we are in a deadlock. To settle this, we’ll go back to a familiar place from the 2000 Presidential Race: Florida. We’ll see how these candidates’ credit unions compare with first look participants from Florida in a measure that aptly describes the performance of some of Florida’s voting machines in 2000: delinquency.

Kerry (MA) &
Edwards (NC)
Bush (TX) &
Cheney (WY)

By outperforming the Florida credit unions, the Kerry-Edwards ticket looks like the one to beat. Before anyone demands a recount though or asks for the margin or error, keep in mind that we may bring this formula back when all 2nd quarter data arrives in late August, which just happens to be the same time as the Republican National Convention.

In the meantime, if your credit union would like to participate in First Look, please send your June 5300 report in XML format to 5300@callahan.com




Aug. 2, 2004


  • Doesn't deserve a comment! You're reaching for news!