With a monthly submission schedule, data on corporate credit unions can provide a good early read on trends in the natural-person credit union system.
As of November 2005, corporate credit unions (excluding US Central) had total loans outstanding of $6.3 billion. This is 64 percent annual growth, and as displayed in the graph below, corporate loans have been increasing each of the past two months.
The graph also shows total shares at corporate credit unions in a general downward trend, and dropping each of the past two months. Taken in tandem, these two data points indicate that two major events that defined natural-person credit union experience in 2005 persisted in the fourth quarter: a low inflow of shares, and growth in the loan portfolio.
Economic data suggests that continued consumer loan growth at 2005’s pace is likely unsustainable. We’ll keep an eye on this possibility via the corporate data as well as anecdotal evidence from individual credit unions.
Callahan & Associates’ First Look program is also a great way to preview trends in natural-person credit unions before call report data is released. The 709 credit unions that have submitted their data as February 6 show similar trends to those indicated by the corporate system. Those 709 credit unions had loan growth of 14.16 percent and share growth of 6.59 percent.
Participating in Callahan’s First Look program allows you to see preliminary trends for year-end results. To participate in the First Look program, email your call report in XML format to firstname.lastname@example.org.