Final Four Predictions Cast Using Industry Data

Callahan & Associates uses our time-tested method of credit union analysis to determine which Final Four team stands the best shot of ultimately cutting down the net in St. Louis.

 
 

College basketball fans were treated to some exciting moments last weekend as three out of four NCAA Regional Championship games went into overtime, before Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State and North Carolina moved on to the Final Four.

But with the excitement of last-second three-pointers, clutch foul shots and nerve-racking reviews, the level of parity is leaving some puzzled about what to expect next.

Thankfully, we at Callahan & Associates can use our time-tested method of credit union analysis to determine which Final Four team stands the best shot of ultimately cutting down the net in St. Louis.

Sure, some may point to the No. 1 seeds of Illinois and North Carolina as an edge the Illini and Tar Heels have over No. 4 seed Louisville and No. 5 seed Michigan State.

However, the non-interest income growth for credit unions in the state of Michigan might signal some problems for Sean May and the Tar Heels, since credit unions in North Carolina grew non-interest income just 1.99 percent last year compared to the 14.3 percent growth of CUs from the Spartans' home state. But then again, North Carolina credit unions' average auto loan portfolio of $28.5 million might mean the Tar Heels are actually in the driver's seat in that match-up.

Illinois looks dominant over Louisville in share growth (4.91% vs. 2.82%) and membership growth (1.67% vs. 0.57%), but much like Louisville's second-half comeback against West Virginia last weekend, the Cards might counter late in the contest with their superior ROA (0.96% vs. 0.80%) or Return to Member Index (54 vs. 47).

Of course, as much as we'd like for past data to predict future results, the outcome will ultimately be decided on the hardwood, and not the balance sheet. However, after you're done watching the games, and checking your bracket, come over to our publications section and read more about Callahan's Return to Member index and our newly-released 2005 Financial Yearbooks.

State

Number of Credit Unions

Share
Growth

Member Growth

Non-Interest Income Growth

ROA

Return to Member (ROM)

Illinois

488

4.91%

1.67%

7.57%

0.80%

47

Michigan (MSU)

413

3.66%

0.63%

14.29%

0.84%

43

North Carolina

140

6.68%

6.28%

1.99%

0.76%

47

Kentucky ( Louisville)

110

2.82%

0.57%

14.80%

0.96%

54

 

 

 

March 28, 2005


Comments

 
 
 
  • While I enjoyed your analysis, it's weak that you don't go out on the line and make a final four pick!
    Anonymous
     
     
     
  • Your "time-tested method" for picking the Super Bowl winner worked so well, it's understandable why people would be on the edge of their seats waiting for your predictions on the Final Four!
    Anonymous
     
     
     
  • Why are we not including the ladies? After all, credit unions have always been more receptive to female leadership and abilities than the competition--and with the success rates to show for it. Since California share growth, member growth, etc. are exceptional on all counts--the Stanford Cardinal to take it all!
    Anonymous
     
     
     
  • Sorry, but MSU is going to take it!
    Anonymous