Pants On Fire

Fed officials can no longer deny they consider the markets when deciding monetary policy.


There are two things to take away from the release of the minutes from the March 15 FOMC meeting.

First, the Fed acknowledged the economy had recovered in all aspects required for normalization of policy. A 0.75-1.00% funds rate is not normal. This implies the Fed intends to stay on the path toward a more realistic neutral policy rate of 1.75% to 2.00% at a minimum.

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Second, the comment about stocks  some officials noted prices were "quite high"  means the denials by Fed officials that they discuss and consider markets is total bull poopy. You knew it, but they confirmed it. I won’t call the Fed officials who claim this liars, but their pants are on fire.

The Federal Open Market Committee knows what it wants to do, but will President Trump's policy moves and other actions permit it? It’s a Trump world, not a Fed world. The Fed is just a sideshow.

Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.


April 6, 2017

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