Stock market sell-offs have given the bond market nothing in the way of a boost, but stock market rallies have taken bond prices down. It’s getting pretty obvious now that the bond market’s problem isn’t just selling by China.
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There have to be other large sellers in the market. Is this in response to an eventual Fed tightening? Perhaps. But if these big account traders are so sure any Fed move would be “one and done” there is no reason to sell bonds.
I think there are at least some big bond accounts that are sensing that rising wages and the faint whiff of inflation are looming in the months ahead.
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Dwight Johnston is the chief economist of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues and president of Dwight Johnston Economics. He is the author of a popular commentary site and is a frequent speaker at credit union board planning sessions and industry conferences.