Callahan Bowl XII: Data Predicts New England Patriots Dynasty Continues

Though it’ll be a nail biter.

 
 

How much do Americans love their football? Of the 20 most watched broadcasts in our country’s history, according to Nielsen, 19 were Super Bowls; the seven most-popular broadcasts of all time are the last seven Super Bowls; and in 2016 the Super Bowl post-game show counted 10 million more viewers than the second presidential debate.

And this Sunday, Super Bowl LI promises to rank high on this list as well. The Atlanta Falcons will play the New England Patriots and, as it often does, Callahan’s credit union data helps break down the matchup and pick a winner.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Falcons 0, Patriots 0

 

LOAN GROWTH

FOR ATLANTA AND CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

Atlanta credit union’s year-over-year loan growth of nearly 12% at third quarter narrowly outpaces the 11.45% posted by Boston credit unions. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Point: Atlanta.

Falcons 1, Patriots 0

 

LOAN-TO-SHARE RATIO

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

Boston credit unions answer here thanks to a 95% loan-to-share ratio, compared to 78% for Atlanta credit unions.

Falcons 1, Patriots 1

 

AVERAGE MEMBER RELATIONSHIP

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

The average member relationship for Boston credit unions has historically bested the performance for Atlanta credit unions. And third quarter 2016 proves no exception.

Falcons 1, Patriots 2

 

SHARE DRAFT PENETRATION

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

Thanks to a share draft penetration rate just about 2.5 percentage points higher than the rate seen at Atlanta credit unions, Boston takes a huge advantage.

Falcons 1, Patriots 3

 

TOTAL DELINQUENCY

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

But Atlanta isn’t done. Total delinquency at Hotlanta credit unions holds an eight basis point advantage over Beantown institutions.

Falcons 2, Patriots 3

 

NET-INTEREST MARGIN

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

By 13 basis points, Atlanta credit unions top their Boston counterparts in net-interest margin setting up a win-or-go-home final metric.

Falcons 3, Patriots 3

 

RETURN ON ASSETS

FOR ATLANTA AND BOSTON CREDIT UNIONS | DATA AS OF 09.30.16

Source: Callahan & Associates.

Another metric, another close call: The return on assets for Boston credit unions of 0.73% bests the 0.66% seen at Atlanta credit unions in third quarter 2016.

Falcons 3, Patriots 4

The Bottom Line

The data doesn’t lie: The New England Patriots will take down the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, though Callahan predicts a close contest.

If you’re a Falcons fan looking for optimism, however, consider the wisdom of Las Vegas. When betting was opened last week, the Patriots were three-point favorites. And what do each of the previous five Super Bowl champions have in common? They were all underdogs going into the big game.

But what do you, the CreditUnions.com reader, think? Leave us a comment below telling us who is going to win and why.

And don’t forget to check out some of our past predictions: