Callahan Bowl IX

Callahan & Associates predicts the winner of Super Bowl XLVII through analysis of local credit union data.

 
 

Growing up as a Baltimore Ravens fan, I’ve already  been fortunate enough to experience my hometown team winning one Super Bowl in their short existence.

This year, the Ravens are back in the big game thanks to the arm of Joe Flacco and the quick hands of wide receiver Torrey Smith — while Ray Lewis anchors a defense that has been stingy in the red zone throughout the playoffs.

Baltimore’s best will face off against the San Francisco 49ers, led by Colin Kaepernick and his cannon of an arm as well as linebacker Patrick Willis and company — one of the best defenses in the league.

This Sunday will also give new meaning to the term sibling rivalry. The coaches for both teams are brothers, with Jim Harbaugh leading the 49ers and John Harbaugh leading the Ravens.

In order to help predict who will win Super Bowl XLVII, Callahan is once again turning to credit union data as our guide, comparing  cooperative institutions headquartered in the Baltimore metro area with those in San Francisco. Let’s take a look at what these numbers show.

12-Month Loan Growth

Baltimore: 5.9%
San Francisco: 6.1%

The first quarter of the game is expected to be a nail biter and our first metric is a good indicator of how evenly matched these two cities are. San Francisco-based credit unions just barely beat out their Baltimore-based peers, posting outstanding annual loan growth that is 20 basis points higher.

Advantage: San Francisco

Loans/Shares

Baltimore: 63.3%
San Francisco: 61.5%

This is another extremely close comparison, but this time Baltimore comes out slightly ahead. Its credit unions have a higher amount of deposits lent out to members, which is very important for success in the persisting low-rate environment.

Advantage: Baltimore

Average Member Relationship

Baltimore: $16,888
San Francisco: $22,569

San Francisco-based credit unions come out swinging in average member relationship, easily besting their Charm City brethren by nearly $5,700 per member. But it is fair to note that this metric can be influenced by the membership within these areas, as well as other factors like cost-of-living differences.

Advantage: San Francisco

Share Draft Penetration

Baltimore: 50.1%
San Francisco: 55.8%

Share draft penetration is a crucial metric, as members tend to open these accounts with their primary financial institution. While over half of the members in both metro areas have a checking account with their credit union, San Francisco again tops Baltimore —  this time by over 5 percentage points.

Advantage: San Francisco

Delinquency

Baltimore: 1.18%
San Francisco: 0.89%

Credit unions in both areas have strong asset quality, but San Francisco is the clear victor. Well-honed lending standards have yielded a delinquency rate 29 basis points lower than Baltimore’s.

Advantage: San Francisco

Operating Expense Per Member

Baltimore: $347
San Francisco: $398

Just like NFL teams must manage their salary cap to make sure they are not spending too much money on their players, credit unions must staff and operate their institutions efficiently despite declines in revenue. Baltimore credit unions do this best, spending less than San Francisco cooperatives on a per member basis.

Advantage: Baltimore

Return on Assets (ROA)

Baltimore: 0.73%
San Francisco: 0.89%

When it comes to profitability, The City by the Bay once again beats out Charm City, with earnings that are clearly superior. While San Francisco credit unions have already sealed up the win, this final victory is icing on the cake.

Advantage: San Francisco

Final Tally

San Francisco: 5
Baltimore: 2

As much as it pains me to admit, the credit union data clearly points to a 49ers victory on Sunday. But I think that the actual game will be much closer than this data indicates, as both teams seem to be pretty evenly matched. Best of luck to the players and coaches on Sunday and here’s to another great Super Bowl!