Callahan Bowl XI Predicts Seattle Repeat

Deflating news to Patriots partisans: Callahan data points to Seahawks triumph.

 
 

One of America’s favorite pastimes is reading (and writing) about who’ll win the Super Bowl. Predictions are based on a variety of factors, including many that have little to do with football.

For the past several years, Callahan has made a prediction for who will win the championship based on data from several key performance measures. This year, we're using third quarter 2014 data.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Seahawks 0, Patriots 0

 

12-Mo Loan Growth
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

12-MP_Loan_Growth

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

Seattle credit unions posted loan growth of 14.3% in the third quarter of 2014 over the year-ago quarter, compared with 9.7% for Boston credit unions. Not bad numbers for Beantown, but not nearly enough here.

Seahawks 1, Patriots 0

 

loans-to-shares
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

Loans-to-Shares

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

The Patriots answer on this one, with Boston credit unions 86% loaned out compared with 70.3% for Seattle credit unions.

Seahawks 1, Patriots 1

 

average member relationship
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

Average_Member_Relationship

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

This one is so close as to be a tie, but ties are no fun. Seattle’s average member relationship is $19,768. New England’s, $19,661.

Seahawks 2, Patriots 1

 

share draft penetration
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

Share_Draft_Penetration

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

Seattle fans make their home field basically one of the noisiest and toughest places to visit in the NFL. Their credit unions are also big into basics, with a share draft penetration rate of 71%, well above the 52.1% mark for Boston market credit unions.

Seahawks 3, Patriots 1

 

delinquency
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

Delinquency

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

Kind of like penalty yards, no one wants to lead in this category. Boston credit unions do, at 0.70% to 0.46% for Seattle’s.

Seahawks 4, Patriots 1

 

return on assets
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

ROA

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

Like getting the most from your draft picks, this is another key performance measure. The ROA edge also goes to the Seahawks by a score of 1.24% to 0.70%.

Seahawks 5, Patriots 1

 

net interest margin
Data as of Sept. 30, 2014
© Callahan & Associates | www.creditunions.com

Net_Interest_Margin

Source: Peer-to-Peer Analytics by Callahan & Associates

By 11 basis points, (2.76% to 2.65%) Seattle credit unions top their Boston counterparts in this measure of interest income vs. interest outgo.

Seahawks 6, Patriots 1

The Bottom Line

The Callahan tea leaves once more point to Seattle as the winner of Callahan XI and thus will win Super Bowl XLIX. This would make the Seahawks the first repeat winners of the Super Bowl since the Patriots did it more than a decade ago.

Callahan is not the only one forecasting a Seattle victory. Las Vegas oddsmakers also are giving a slight nod to the Seahawks in early betting.

Of course, that changes by the hour. On-air and online pundits who get paid to prognosticate on such things have records that are less than sterling. And Callahan does, too. The record for the 10 previous Callahan Bowls ­­— 3-7.

So, what do you think? Who’s going to win Sunday, and what makes you so sure? Tell us (and the industry) in the comments below.

— Sam Taft contributed to this article.

 
 

Jan. 26, 2015


Comments

 
 
 
  • Fun!
    Anonymous
     
     
     
  • Thanks for your comment. It was fun to write. And I don't have a dog in this fight. I'm an Ohio State/Cleveland Browns fan transplanted to South Carolina where I'm also now loyal to the Gamecocks and Panthers. I just hope the game's competitive.
    Marc Rapport
  • I'm glad the past predictions have proven poor. A few points: Lower ROA and Net Interest Margin could be indicators of offering better rates/fees to members! Those data points should be automatically reviewed (no challenge flag needed) and the call reversed. The higher delinquency ratio (especially when it is already below 1%) indicates that Seattle’s lending standards may be too tight and they are not serving members who need access to credit. You have to work with your members and offer the right products and terms to get them to their goal line. Creative thinking and rearrangement of linesman and eligible receivers can help. Finally, it’s not clear from the article, but New England and Boston are not the same entity. There's Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and the rest of Mass. Many of those states have a very strong tradition of success including the very first credit union!
    Go Pats!
     
     
     
  • Thank you for your observations. They added to our understanding of the data.
    Marc Rapport
  • All that, and the Legion of BOOM, baby! Go Hawks :)
    Robyn Higdon
     
     
     
  • Thanks, Robyn! Will your Seahawks be able to play so well when it's not raining? ;-)
    Marc Rapport