Callahan Bowl VIII

Callahan & Associates predicts the Super Bowl XLVI champion with a careful analysis of New England and New York credit union data.

 
 

Super Bowl XLVI pits the New England Patriots against the New York Giants in a rematch of 2008’s Super Bowl XLII. Tom Brady and the Patriots are out to avenge that upset win by Eli Manning and the Giants, who ended their chance of a perfect season four years ago. The game looks to be a close one, as the Giants are playing some of their best football of the season at the right time, and the Patriots have been almost unstoppable on offense all season.

To predict the outcome, we here at Callahan compared the performance of New England credit unions (those in the states north of New York) versus New York credit unions. Both credit unions posted strong numbers in the third quarter of 2011, but much like in the Super Bowl, there can only one winner. Onward to the data!

12-Month Loan Growth

New England: 3.2%
New York: 4.3%

Both areas posted positive loan growth, while nationally credit unions’ loan balances fell slightly from 12 months ago. New York credit unions had loan growth of 4.3%, 1.1 percentage points above New England’s growth of 3.2%. Members might need a loan to go watch their favorite team in action in Indianapolis, with the cheapest pair of tickets being resold online listed for $4,950 as of this writing.

Advantage: New York

Loans/Shares

New England: 76.2%
New York: 65.5%

New England credit unions seem to be doing a better job of converting member deposits into loans. While New York credit unions are more liquid with their assets, earning interest income on loans is especially important in the current low-rate environment.

Advantage: New England

Average Member Relationship

New England: $16,007
New York: $16,669

Members at both New England and New York credit unions have stronger relationships with their credit unions than members nationwide, but the average New York credit union member has about $660 more in loans and shares than the average New England member.

Advantage: New York

Share Draft Penetration

New England: 44.8%
New York: 51.5%

Share draft penetration is an important metric at credit unions, as members that have a share draft with a credit union usually use that credit union as their primary financial institution. New York credit unions topped their New England peers in this metric, with more than half of members in New York having a checking account with their credit union. So, New York has a slightly stronger member “fan base.”

Advantage: New York

Delinquency

New England: 1.28%
New York: 1.33%

Asset quality at credit unions in both of areas is very strong, but New England credit unions eke out a 5 basis point win in total delinquency. This shows that these credit unions have strong lending standards when select which loans to fund, much like coaches have to carefully select which 53 players they want on their roster.

Advantage: New England

Operating Expense Per Member

New England: $255
New York: $273

Operating more efficiently is a priority for many credit unions these days, especially given the declines in revenue. While both groups of credit unions having operating expenses per member above the national average of $252, New England credit unions are operating slightly more efficiently than their New York peers. With the new salary cap in the NFL, teams also have to be much more aware of their expenditures on a per-player basis to ensure not going over the cap.

Advantage: New England

Return on Assets (ROA)

New England: 0.51%
New York: 0.75%

The Empire State takes the cake in ROA over their Clam Chowder-loving (New England, not Manhattan) counterparts further north. This 24-basis-point difference in earnings is enough to seal the deal for New York credit unions in terms of ROA.

Advantage: New York

Final Tally

New York: 4
New England: 3

The data points to a victory for the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, although it looks to be close competition. If the big game is anything like the conference championship games, we’re in for a really great game (and hopefully some hilarious commercials as well!).

*As a (currently very sad) Baltimore Ravens fan, I tried to remain unbiased in writing this article. My fellow analyst, Lydia, a native New Englander and Patriots fan, read this and deemed it to be unbiased. If you disagree with anything, feel free to post your comments or e-mail me at abolton@creditunions.com.

 
 

Jan. 30, 2012


Comments

 
 
 
  • Like the Ravens, this article is wide left. :)

    (Patriots fan here).

    Dan Clarke
     
     
     
  • Since the Giants actually play in New Jersey, I wonder how combining NY/NJ would have made this come out? Go Giants!
    Ann
     
     
     
  • You were right on the mark with this prediction!
    Rich Jones