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ARTICLES BY Dwight Johnston

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 1, 2019

Lost momentum is hard to get back, and the loss of forward momentum in the U.S. economy has become entrenched.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 1, 2018

Industry leaders don’t need a crystal ball to see the future. It’s written in auto, jobs, and housing.

By Dwight Johnston | July 1, 2018

Look at the shape of the yield curve within the context of other factors in the economy and not as a stand-alone predictor of recession.

By Dwight Johnston | March 29, 2018

The lion ate the lamb for dinner, but on this last day of the month, the stock market is finally quiet.

By Dwight Johnston | March 22, 2018

Trade news is back in the spotlight after the Trump Administration announced $50 billion in new tariffs aimed directly at China.

By Dwight Johnston | March 15, 2018

The trade story is not done. It’s just in intermission.

By Dwight Johnston | March 1, 2018

Whether inflation swells or holds steady in the coming year relies on two variables.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 18, 2018

Plus, a congressional spending bill vote looms.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 1, 2017

A change in the funds rate and 10-year note would bring the yield curve back into the realm of normal after years of being out of bounds.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 16, 2017

Why we might not see a higher funds rate next year.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 10, 2017

What the potential for tax reform means for the stock market.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 2, 2017

And what we can expect of the new Fed Chairman.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 19, 2017

1987 and 2017 share at least one common trait, but remembering Black Monday is not to create fear. It's to encourage watchfulness.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 12, 2017

After four consecutive weeks of losses for bonds, the bond market has been up each day this week. Will tomorrow's consumer price index release bring that streak to a halt?

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 5, 2017

Friday’s jobs report will be messy and easily forgotten. Traders will go through the motions of reacting, but the numbers will have no staying power.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 28, 2017

Don’t be the first or the last financial institution on the block to raise rates.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 22, 2017

The markets react mildly to yesterday's Fed meeting.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 7, 2017

Uncertainties regarding a new Fed chair, the debt ceiling, budget, and tax reform make it unlikely there will be a carefree Christmas.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 1, 2017

With housing trends skewing national in scope, concerns arise that a bubble could blow up.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 24, 2017

Stocks, bonds, and the debt ceiling. There's a lot fueling a sense of economic uneasiness.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 3, 2017

A snapshot of the bond market reveals bullish speculators are back.

By Dwight Johnston | July 27, 2017

Yesterday's FOMC statement has bond traders thinking Fed tightening might be over.

By Dwight Johnston | July 20, 2017

Speculative bond traders see in Europe the opportunity to put the market back on track.

By Dwight Johnston | July 6, 2017

Why some traders are worried about President Trump’s visit to Europe for the G-20 summit.

By Dwight Johnston | July 1, 2017

Shorter-term rates have moved higher, but the bumps in the overnight rate have had little impact past the two-year note.

By Dwight Johnston | June 22, 2017

Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods is not a game-changer for inflation or Fed policy.

By Dwight Johnston | June 8, 2017

Thursday offers a lineup of three possible threats to the markets.

By Dwight Johnston | May 18, 2017

Three ways the special investigation into Trump’s presidential campaign could impact the economy.

By Dwight Johnston | May 4, 2017

What traders learned from yesterday's FOMC statement, and how they'll react to the latest health care vote.

By Dwight Johnston | April 20, 2017

Traders and Wall Street are making a big deal out of the French election. Here's what Americans need to know.

By Dwight Johnston | April 13, 2017

The movement in the bond market this week was not based on real concerns about the geopolitical scene.

By Dwight Johnston | April 6, 2017

Fed officials can no longer deny they consider the markets when deciding monetary policy.

By Dwight Johnston | March 31, 2017

Growth in consumer credit has sparked concern about credit quality. How will credit unions know when it’s really time to worry?

By Dwight Johnston | March 30, 2017

Does the Fed still matter to bond traders?

By Dwight Johnston | March 23, 2017

Will the health care bill make it to the floor? And how will the market respond to Congressional pressuring?

By Dwight Johnston | March 16, 2017

Bond traders responded fervently to yesterday's rate hike.

By Dwight Johnston | March 9, 2017

Last week's Dow rally fades into memory as the market looks for additional positive reinforcement.

By Dwight Johnston | March 2, 2017

The stock market reacted to Trump’s speech on Tuesday with a triple-digit jump on Wednesday.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 23, 2017

The March meeting is the Fed’s best shot to start what it claims will be three tightenings this year.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 16, 2017

Wall Street has fought the bull market for the past year, always looking for a better buying opportunity.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 9, 2017

The appeals court reviewing the president's travel ban could render a decision before the week's end.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 2, 2017

Trump needs to start working on big issues and stay away from the petty stuff or he will destroy what is left of the goodwill in the markets.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 26, 2017

Buyer demand for the 10-year is not what traders hoped for.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 19, 2017

U.S. employment might be nearing its maximum limit, but there are still pockets of unemployed workers around the country.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 5, 2017

The year's first economic reports are out, and at least one is good news for credit unions.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 22, 2016

All is calm, but is all bright?

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 15, 2016

There will most certainly be more liquidation to come unless the market narrative changes dramatically.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 8, 2016

News from the European Central Bank is not what traders needed or wanted.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 1, 2016

November might have been a nightmare, but today’s Treasury rates aren’t far off 2015.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 1, 2016

What would “normal” rates look like in the coming year, and what events might prevent rates from getting there?

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 10, 2016

The lack of liquidity in the bond market has been an ongoing problem, and now the dam seems to be breaking.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 3, 2016

Traders are doing little besides watching the newswires for election news.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 27, 2016

Once the dust settles, why U.S. traders will go back to watching the German market.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 18, 2016

What do jobs, houses, and autos say about the road ahead for credit unions?

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 13, 2016

In September, China reported a sharper drop in exports than was expected. What does that mean for the bond market?

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 6, 2016

What should credit unions expect from Friday's barrage of economic reports?

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 29, 2016

Oil rallies for a day, and stocks tag along for the ride.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 22, 2016

Both stocks and bonds rallied yesterday on the heels of two central bank meetings.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 15, 2016

Neither stocks nor bonds have made headway in either direction.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 8, 2016

Expected news out of Europe has nonetheless piqued the interest of traders everywhere.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 1, 2016

The markets were quiet for most of August, and traders are eager for September to bring more activity.

Blog
Yellen Eve

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 25, 2016

The world is nervously awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech tomorrow, but the over-hyped event will not live up to expectations.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 18, 2016

The lack of a unified opinion from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors will leave the Fed in the dust when rates rise.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 11, 2016

Although there are differences in bond rates around the world, they are all trading in the same direction.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 4, 2016

Bank of England cuts rates while the American traders chew on domestic numbers and the Fed waits for European picture to clear.

By Dwight Johnston | July 28, 2016

While yesterday's FOMC statement was one of the most positive in quite a while, you wouldn’t know it by looking at where the bond market ended.

By Dwight Johnston | July 21, 2016

Markets are set for day four of the summer snooze fest. If today ends up as dull as the first three days of this week, traders will have a lot of pent up energy to expend tomorrow.

By Dwight Johnston | July 14, 2016

Central bank across the pond chooses to hold rates steady, giving the pound a boost over there and, along with JP Morgan earnings, some market optimism over here.

By Dwight Johnston | July 4, 2016

How three possible rate paths could throw a curveball during the 2017 budgeting process.

By Dwight Johnston | June 30, 2016

The knee-jerk reaction to the Brexit vote is over, but the extent of the fallout is still unknown.

By Dwight Johnston | June 24, 2016

Against the predictions of traders, the UK voted yesterday to leave the European Union.

By Dwight Johnston | June 23, 2016

The British are at their polling stations, and the Brexit vote is on.

By Dwight Johnston | June 16, 2016

The Fed should admit it plans to raise interest rates only once it sees stronger economic growth, calm global conditions, and a sustainable upward trend in inflation.

By Dwight Johnston | June 9, 2016

Mario Drahi and George Soros are dinging stocks and giving bond traders a reason to dip below a key level.

By Dwight Johnston | May 19, 2016

Despite the strong suggestion by the Fed that it will increase rates in June, two events could cause it to hit the pause button.

By Dwight Johnston | April 28, 2016

As peak season for home sales approaches, the outlook for mortgage lending remains positive.

By Dwight Johnston | April 7, 2016

What the future might look like should the U.S. Fed adopt the policies of the central banks in Europe and Japan.

By Dwight Johnston | March 31, 2016

Securities end quarter strong, while next quarter could determine rates for years to come.

By Dwight Johnston | March 24, 2016

Fed officials have sounded sounded more upbeat on the economy than Yellen sounded last week.

By Dwight Johnston | March 17, 2016

The Fed has been throwing off mixed signals for years; yesterday’s FOMC statement was just the latest.

By Dwight Johnston | March 10, 2016

Memo to U.S. traders: Set aside the ECB and focus on what our own Fed might say next week.

By Dwight Johnston | March 3, 2016

Friday's U.S. jobs report is taking on more importance than we have seen in some time.

Blog
Dream Big

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 25, 2016

Traders have avoided getting caught up in the Chinese stock market, but can they wean themselves away from oil enough to watch fundamentals again?

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 28, 2016

Amid volatile movement in the stock market, the Federal Reserve is simply watching the world go by.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 21, 2016

New technology has displaced oil’s major role in the global economy.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 21, 2016

Expect economic hurdles and high jumps in 2016.

By Dwight Johnston | Jan. 7, 2016

A drop in the Chinese currency sparks a new wave of selling.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 10, 2015

The year-end action by FOMC could set the tone for 2016.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 3, 2015

After the big jump in October payrolls, a more normal gain is expected.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 19, 2015

Movement in the excess reserve rate could mean a major increase in income.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 12, 2015

Does bad news from the nation's largest retail sales department store bring sad tidings for the holiday season?

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 5, 2015

If and when the Federal Reserve finally raises the overnight funds rate, the bond market will already be way ahead.

By Dwight Johnston | Nov. 4, 2015

Early warning signs suggest values in hot markets are getting stretched, and increased mortgage rates will send some areas into overvalued territory.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 29, 2015

Stock traders like easy money, but they don’t like seeing the Federal Reserve basing decisions on shaky global markets.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 15, 2015

Despite a rally in Chinese stocks, traders are looking for bad news.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 8, 2015

More good news for the long-term outlook of the housing market.

By Dwight Johnston | Oct. 1, 2015

Stock traders are trying to use Wednesday’s rally as a launching pad for a better fourth quarter, but the market is looking a bit wobbly.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 24, 2015

Investors are fed up with market confusion. Will a lecture today by the Fed chair provide any clarity?

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 17, 2015

How the markets will react to today's FOMC statement is anyone's guess. The markets stopped making sense a long time ago.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 10, 2015

Where the markets end price-wise today is anyone’s guess. But we can be certain that the markets will end the day just as uncertainly as they are beginning.

By Dwight Johnston | Sept. 3, 2015

The bond market’s problem isn’t just selling by China.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 27, 2015

Although Donald Trump might tell you China is trying to destroy America, the simple fact is the Chinese need to raise money to fund support efforts at home.

By Dwight Johnston | Aug. 20, 2015

Foundering currencies and cratering commodities point to reluctance to raise rates when FOMC meets next month.

By Dwight Johnston | July 30, 2015

This indecision over whether to tighten rates is wasted angst.

By Dwight Johnston | July 23, 2015

A slow summer day, mixed earnings for two symbolic companies, and dropping oil prices present a mixed bag for a sluggish global economy.

By Dwight Johnston | July 16, 2015

Traders shrug at the deal struck between the European Union and Greek Parliament but turn their attention to ECB president Mario Draghi.

By Dwight Johnston | July 9, 2015

Hopefully, U.S. traders are not really focusing on Chinese markets. Why optimism over Greece in Europe is growing also is unclear.

By Dwight Johnston | July 2, 2015

Regardless of what happens in Europe, we can expect one outcome on Monday.

By Dwight Johnston | June 25, 2015

The rhetoric out of Greece suggests the crisis could be resolved as early as next week.

By Dwight Johnston | June 18, 2015

This data-dependent board of governors will do nothing until evidence slaps it in the face.

By Dwight Johnston | June 11, 2015

Minor consumer splurge in May drives first strong numbers in many months.

By Dwight Johnston | June 4, 2015

The German bond market led the way on Wednesday as the 10-year note closed the day at 0.85%.

Blog
China Blue

By Dwight Johnston | May 28, 2015

Global stock markets are having a sympathetic reaction to the Shanghai Composite.

By Dwight Johnston | May 21, 2015

The markets are trading quietly as the Fed takes a wait-and-see approach on raising interest rates.

By Dwight Johnston | May 12, 2015

Bond traders are on their tiptoes in an effort to not disturb the German beast.

By Dwight Johnston | May 6, 2015

Fed chair Janet Yellen’s comments during an IMF conference on Wednesday contributed to a global sell-off of stocks last night.

By Dwight Johnston | April 30, 2015

Dow futures are down 20 points in preopening trading and bond prices are close to unchanged to start the last day of April.

By Dwight Johnston | April 23, 2015

The NASDAQ teeters on the precipice of breaking even after 15 years, and the German 10-year yield sneaks a surprise attack on the bond market.

By Dwight Johnston | April 16, 2015

Disappointing numbers in U.S. housing starts could be a lingering effect of the winter blues.

By Dwight Johnston | April 9, 2015

In yesterday's FOMC minutes, the Fed laid out three conditions that must be met in order for it to consider the first tightening.

By Dwight Johnston | April 2, 2015

The bond bulls and economic bear crowd is over-hyping the potential for tomorrow’s jobs number to be a game changer.

By Dwight Johnston | March 26, 2015

Reversals and consistency in stocks and bonds.

By Dwight Johnston | March 19, 2015

March's statement and forecast proves the central bank is as vulnerable to short-term factors as any short-term trader.

By Dwight Johnston | March 12, 2015

Poor weather and cloudy consumer moods drag down retail performance, to the apparent surprise of economists.

By Dwight Johnston | March 5, 2015

Bonds are down, jobless claims are up, and the 10-Year Treasury yield could hinge on February's jobs reports.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 26, 2015

Watch for frenzied news coverage at month's end as stock traders target two landmarks for the Dow and NASDAQ.

By Dwight Johnston | July 16, 2014

It’s a constant struggle to separate illusion from future vision, but here are three likely paths that the evolving rate situation may take in the year ahead.

By Dwight Johnston | April 7, 2014

Two economic cornerstones that nearly crumbled during the recession — jobs and housing — are now structurally sound and ready to lift credit unions to the next level of success.

By Dwight Johnston | Dec. 19, 2012

Will lawmakers avoid stepping on each other’s toes long enough to strike a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff?

By Dwight Johnston | July 2, 2012

The European Union summit outcome offers no real game-changers.

By Dwight Johnston | July 2, 2012

The European Union summit outcome offers no real game-changers.

By Dwight Johnston | May 21, 2012

With a housing market rebound likely to continue, credit unions can start to think about how to create new mortgage lending service.

By Dwight Johnston | May 21, 2012

With a housing market rebound likely to continue, credit unions can start to think about how to create new mortgage lending service.

By Dwight Johnston | April 12, 2012

Is QE III a reality, and if so, how will it impact the bond market?

By Dwight Johnston | April 12, 2012

Is QE III a reality, and if so, how will it impact the bond market?

By Dwight Johnston | March 28, 2012

Industry reports suggest the improvement in the housing market has slowed, but there there is more to consider.

By Dwight Johnston | March 28, 2012

Industry reports suggest the improvement in the housing market has slowed, but there there is more to consider.

By Dwight Johnston | March 12, 2012

An article in the Los Angeles Times provides a cautionary lesson for credit unions.

By Dwight Johnston | March 12, 2012

An article in the Los Angeles Times provides a cautionary lesson for credit unions.

By Dwight Johnston | March 7, 2012

The slow, steady increase in sales is based on affordability, need, and the ability to pay.

By Dwight Johnston | March 7, 2012

The slow, steady increase in sales is based on affordability, need, and the ability to pay.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 28, 2012

Credit unions grew profits and market share in last year’s low-rate environment.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 28, 2012

Credit unions grew profits and market share in last year’s low-rate environment.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 20, 2012

The recovery of the under-built housing market may be on track as builders say they are more confident, investment purchases pick up and as affordability improves.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 20, 2012

The recovery of the under-built housing market may be on track as builders say they are more confident, investment purchases pick up and as affordability improves.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 1, 2012

This week’s economic indicators, Greece and Europe, and low-rate creativity have several implications for credit unions.

By Dwight Johnston | Feb. 1, 2012

This week’s economic indicators, Greece and Europe, and low-rate creativity have several implications for credit unions.

By Dwight Johnston | March 17, 2008

Financial Solutions Symposium Preview: Dwight Johnston market commentary.

By Dwight Johnston | June 18, 2007

To stay genuinely competitive, we need to continue educating ourselves.