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Lost momentum is hard to get back, and the loss of forward momentum in the U.S. economy has become entrenched.
Industry leaders don’t need a crystal ball to see the future. It’s written in auto, jobs, and housing.
Look at the shape of the yield curve within the context of other factors in the economy and not as a stand-alone predictor of recession.
The lion ate the lamb for dinner, but on this last day of the month, the stock market is finally quiet.
Trade news is back in the spotlight after the Trump Administration announced $50 billion in new tariffs aimed directly at China.
The trade story is not done. It’s just in intermission.
Whether inflation swells or holds steady in the coming year relies on two variables.
Plus, a congressional spending bill vote looms.
A change in the funds rate and 10-year note would bring the yield curve back into the realm of normal after years of being out of bounds.
Why we might not see a higher funds rate next year.
What the potential for tax reform means for the stock market.
And what we can expect of the new Fed Chairman.
1987 and 2017 share at least one common trait, but remembering Black Monday is not to create fear. It's to encourage watchfulness.
After four consecutive weeks of losses for bonds, the bond market has been up each day this week. Will tomorrow's consumer price index release bring that streak to a halt?
Friday’s jobs report will be messy and easily forgotten. Traders will go through the motions of reacting, but the numbers will have no staying power.
Don’t be the first or the last financial institution on the block to raise rates.
The markets react mildly to yesterday's Fed meeting.
Uncertainties regarding a new Fed chair, the debt ceiling, budget, and tax reform make it unlikely there will be a carefree Christmas.
With housing trends skewing national in scope, concerns arise that a bubble could blow up.
Stocks, bonds, and the debt ceiling. There's a lot fueling a sense of economic uneasiness.
A snapshot of the bond market reveals bullish speculators are back.
Yesterday's FOMC statement has bond traders thinking Fed tightening might be over.
Speculative bond traders see in Europe the opportunity to put the market back on track.
Why some traders are worried about President Trump’s visit to Europe for the G-20 summit.
Shorter-term rates have moved higher, but the bumps in the overnight rate have had little impact past the two-year note.
Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods is not a game-changer for inflation or Fed policy.
Thursday offers a lineup of three possible threats to the markets.
Three ways the special investigation into Trump’s presidential campaign could impact the economy.
What traders learned from yesterday's FOMC statement, and how they'll react to the latest health care vote.
Traders and Wall Street are making a big deal out of the French election. Here's what Americans need to know.
The movement in the bond market this week was not based on real concerns about the geopolitical scene.
Fed officials can no longer deny they consider the markets when deciding monetary policy.
Growth in consumer credit has sparked concern about credit quality. How will credit unions know when it’s really time to worry?
Does the Fed still matter to bond traders?
Will the health care bill make it to the floor? And how will the market respond to Congressional pressuring?
Bond traders responded fervently to yesterday's rate hike.
Last week's Dow rally fades into memory as the market looks for additional positive reinforcement.
The stock market reacted to Trump’s speech on Tuesday with a triple-digit jump on Wednesday.
The March meeting is the Fed’s best shot to start what it claims will be three tightenings this year.
Wall Street has fought the bull market for the past year, always looking for a better buying opportunity.
The appeals court reviewing the president's travel ban could render a decision before the week's end.
Trump needs to start working on big issues and stay away from the petty stuff or he will destroy what is left of the goodwill in the markets.
Buyer demand for the 10-year is not what traders hoped for.
U.S. employment might be nearing its maximum limit, but there are still pockets of unemployed workers around the country.
The year's first economic reports are out, and at least one is good news for credit unions.
All is calm, but is all bright?
There will most certainly be more liquidation to come unless the market narrative changes dramatically.
News from the European Central Bank is not what traders needed or wanted.
November might have been a nightmare, but today’s Treasury rates aren’t far off 2015.
What would “normal” rates look like in the coming year, and what events might prevent rates from getting there?
The lack of liquidity in the bond market has been an ongoing problem, and now the dam seems to be breaking.
Traders are doing little besides watching the newswires for election news.
Once the dust settles, why U.S. traders will go back to watching the German market.
What do jobs, houses, and autos say about the road ahead for credit unions?
In September, China reported a sharper drop in exports than was expected. What does that mean for the bond market?
What should credit unions expect from Friday's barrage of economic reports?
Oil rallies for a day, and stocks tag along for the ride.
Both stocks and bonds rallied yesterday on the heels of two central bank meetings.
Neither stocks nor bonds have made headway in either direction.
Expected news out of Europe has nonetheless piqued the interest of traders everywhere.
The markets were quiet for most of August, and traders are eager for September to bring more activity.
The world is nervously awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech tomorrow, but the over-hyped event will not live up to expectations.
The lack of a unified opinion from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors will leave the Fed in the dust when rates rise.
Although there are differences in bond rates around the world, they are all trading in the same direction.
Bank of England cuts rates while the American traders chew on domestic numbers and the Fed waits for European picture to clear.
While yesterday's FOMC statement was one of the most positive in quite a while, you wouldn’t know it by looking at where the bond market ended.
Markets are set for day four of the summer snooze fest. If today ends up as dull as the first three days of this week, traders will have a lot of pent up energy to expend tomorrow.
Central bank across the pond chooses to hold rates steady, giving the pound a boost over there and, along with JP Morgan earnings, some market optimism over here.
How three possible rate paths could throw a curveball during the 2017 budgeting process.
The knee-jerk reaction to the Brexit vote is over, but the extent of the fallout is still unknown.
Against the predictions of traders, the UK voted yesterday to leave the European Union.
The British are at their polling stations, and the Brexit vote is on.
The Fed should admit it plans to raise interest rates only once it sees stronger economic growth, calm global conditions, and a sustainable upward trend in inflation.
Mario Drahi and George Soros are dinging stocks and giving bond traders a reason to dip below a key level.
Despite the strong suggestion by the Fed that it will increase rates in June, two events could cause it to hit the pause button.
As peak season for home sales approaches, the outlook for mortgage lending remains positive.
What the future might look like should the U.S. Fed adopt the policies of the central banks in Europe and Japan.
Securities end quarter strong, while next quarter could determine rates for years to come.
Fed officials have sounded sounded more upbeat on the economy than Yellen sounded last week.
The Fed has been throwing off mixed signals for years; yesterday’s FOMC statement was just the latest.
Memo to U.S. traders: Set aside the ECB and focus on what our own Fed might say next week.
Friday's U.S. jobs report is taking on more importance than we have seen in some time.
Traders have avoided getting caught up in the Chinese stock market, but can they wean themselves away from oil enough to watch fundamentals again?
Amid volatile movement in the stock market, the Federal Reserve is simply watching the world go by.
New technology has displaced oil’s major role in the global economy.
Expect economic hurdles and high jumps in 2016.
A drop in the Chinese currency sparks a new wave of selling.
The year-end action by FOMC could set the tone for 2016.
After the big jump in October payrolls, a more normal gain is expected.
Movement in the excess reserve rate could mean a major increase in income.
Does bad news from the nation's largest retail sales department store bring sad tidings for the holiday season?
If and when the Federal Reserve finally raises the overnight funds rate, the bond market will already be way ahead.
Early warning signs suggest values in hot markets are getting stretched, and increased mortgage rates will send some areas into overvalued territory.
Stock traders like easy money, but they don’t like seeing the Federal Reserve basing decisions on shaky global markets.
Despite a rally in Chinese stocks, traders are looking for bad news.
More good news for the long-term outlook of the housing market.
Stock traders are trying to use Wednesday’s rally as a launching pad for a better fourth quarter, but the market is looking a bit wobbly.
Investors are fed up with market confusion. Will a lecture today by the Fed chair provide any clarity?
How the markets will react to today's FOMC statement is anyone's guess. The markets stopped making sense a long time ago.
Where the markets end price-wise today is anyone’s guess. But we can be certain that the markets will end the day just as uncertainly as they are beginning.
The bond market’s problem isn’t just selling by China.
Although Donald Trump might tell you China is trying to destroy America, the simple fact is the Chinese need to raise money to fund support efforts at home.
Foundering currencies and cratering commodities point to reluctance to raise rates when FOMC meets next month.
This indecision over whether to tighten rates is wasted angst.
A slow summer day, mixed earnings for two symbolic companies, and dropping oil prices present a mixed bag for a sluggish global economy.
Traders shrug at the deal struck between the European Union and Greek Parliament but turn their attention to ECB president Mario Draghi.
Hopefully, U.S. traders are not really focusing on Chinese markets. Why optimism over Greece in Europe is growing also is unclear.
Regardless of what happens in Europe, we can expect one outcome on Monday.
The rhetoric out of Greece suggests the crisis could be resolved as early as next week.
This data-dependent board of governors will do nothing until evidence slaps it in the face.
Minor consumer splurge in May drives first strong numbers in many months.
The German bond market led the way on Wednesday as the 10-year note closed the day at 0.85%.
Global stock markets are having a sympathetic reaction to the Shanghai Composite.
The markets are trading quietly as the Fed takes a wait-and-see approach on raising interest rates.
Bond traders are on their tiptoes in an effort to not disturb the German beast.
Fed chair Janet Yellen’s comments during an IMF conference on Wednesday contributed to a global sell-off of stocks last night.
Dow futures are down 20 points in preopening trading and bond prices are close to unchanged to start the last day of April.
The NASDAQ teeters on the precipice of breaking even after 15 years, and the German 10-year yield sneaks a surprise attack on the bond market.
Disappointing numbers in U.S. housing starts could be a lingering effect of the winter blues.
In yesterday's FOMC minutes, the Fed laid out three conditions that must be met in order for it to consider the first tightening.
The bond bulls and economic bear crowd is over-hyping the potential for tomorrow’s jobs number to be a game changer.
Reversals and consistency in stocks and bonds.
March's statement and forecast proves the central bank is as vulnerable to short-term factors as any short-term trader.
Poor weather and cloudy consumer moods drag down retail performance, to the apparent surprise of economists.
Bonds are down, jobless claims are up, and the 10-Year Treasury yield could hinge on February's jobs reports.
Watch for frenzied news coverage at month's end as stock traders target two landmarks for the Dow and NASDAQ.
It’s a constant struggle to separate illusion from future vision, but here are three likely paths that the evolving rate situation may take in the year ahead.
Two economic cornerstones that nearly crumbled during the recession — jobs and housing — are now structurally sound and ready to lift credit unions to the next level of success.
Will lawmakers avoid stepping on each other’s toes long enough to strike a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff?
The European Union summit outcome offers no real game-changers.
With a housing market rebound likely to continue, credit unions can start to think about how to create new mortgage lending service.
Is QE III a reality, and if so, how will it impact the bond market?
Industry reports suggest the improvement in the housing market has slowed, but there there is more to consider.
An article in the Los Angeles Times provides a cautionary lesson for credit unions.
The slow, steady increase in sales is based on affordability, need, and the ability to pay.
Credit unions grew profits and market share in last year’s low-rate environment.
The recovery of the under-built housing market may be on track as builders say they are more confident, investment purchases pick up and as affordability improves.
This week’s economic indicators, Greece and Europe, and low-rate creativity have several implications for credit unions.
Financial Solutions Symposium Preview: Dwight Johnston market commentary.
To stay genuinely competitive, we need to continue educating ourselves.